Prediction Delusion?

The hindsight bias is defined as the tendency to overestimate one's ability to have predicted an event once the outcome is known. This Business Line article demonstrates an example of this phenomena. In this article it asks that after watching the World Cup 2011 semi-final game between Pakistan and India, whether or not you predicted that India would win? It then states that due to typical behavior, many people would answer "yes". Venkatesh explains that it is because we have large gaps in our memory. In order to fill in the gaps, we use the information that is available proceeding an event. This causes people to believe that they had predicted the event only after the event had taken place.

I think that it is interesting the way the brain reconstructs misinformation as though it is fact. When the brain reconstructs, people genuinely believe that they previously knew this information or had these thoughts that they did not actually have. Venkatesh then explains that if we truly believe that we have predicted the past then it will then lead us to believe that we can predict the future better than we actually can. I believe that the hindsight bias is interesting and quite frankly relatable to everyone. I am sure the everyone can recall at least one instance where they experienced hindsight bias.

The example of the World Cup semi-final game reminded me of the experiment that was performed by Elizabeth Loftus. Using the Lost-in-the-Mall study, Loftus implanted false information into a mans head making him believe that as a child he got lost in a mall. She then made him believe that he was approached by a man and was then told by his mother not to wander off again. By asking simple questions, the ideas that are implied by an outside source then fill the gaps in the mind causing the brain to believe something that did not actually happen. Hindsight bias is a compelling phenomena that displays the great effect our brains have over us.

http://homepage.psy.utexas.edu/Homepage/Class/Psy394U/Bower/07%20False%20Memories/Loftus-%20Creating%20False%20Mems.pdf